Originally published PERSPECTIVE: Five Considerations for Military Action Against Mexican Drug Cartels on by https://www.hstoday.us/featured/perspective-5-ways-military-action-against-mexican-cartels-could-endanger-the-u-s-homeland/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=perspective-5-ways-military-action-against-mexican-cartels-could-endanger-the-u-s-homeland at Homeland Security
The American war on drugs is decades old and has arguably not achieved its core objectives. While the American government has made several attempts to degrade the ability of Mexican cartels to produce narcotics for sale and use in the United States, it has had a limited or temporary impact on drug interdiction, addiction, and fatalities.
The US government has made numerous diplomatic efforts to convince China and Mexico to assist in the fight against the trade of narcotics and precursor chemicals. For example, Mexico signed the Bicentennial Framework for Security in 2022, which was expanded in 2023, but produced minimal results. Similar agreements were signed with China. However, a 2024 House Select Committee discovered that China subsidizes the production and export of fentanyl precursor chemicals through tax rebates and grants.
As a result, one of President Donald Trump’s first executive orders was to declare some Mexican drug cartels and other supporting organizations as “Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and specially designated global terrorists”. As a result of this executive order, some questioned whether it was prudent to send in the military to attack the cartels. On paper, military action may seem like a good idea, but what would the consequences for the homeland be if implemented?
Send in the Navy SEALs
Some commentators have suggested that the Navy SEALs or the Marines could be sent to deal with the cartels. This is an overly simplistic perspective. Striking the cartels is a highly complex process, as they have developed elaborate, distributed, and well-funded networks of operations across Mexico.
The cartels have infiltrated high positions in the Mexican government to influence policy direction and inform their leaders of any action the Mexican authorities, or foreign powers, might plan to take. Currently, under President Sheinbaum, and her predecessor, President Obrador, Mexico has remained relatively discreet in its opposition to the cartels. Unsurprisingly, Mexico will therefore continue to be opposed to the entry and operation of US military personnel on its soil.
This reticence to act is also due to the cartels’ reputation for using extreme violence to achieve their goals, and the intimidation of law enforcement, government officials, and potential witnesses is standard practice for them. With this knowledge, individuals are more likely to accept bribes and cooperate as a means to avoid violent consequences.
Apart from violent gangs and drug cartels, the national economy is another reason for the Mexican government’s inaction. While it is impossible to determine the exact amount of money entering the Mexican economy due to cartel operations, estimates suggest that the value of the narcotics trade to the cartels ranges from $13.6 billion to $49.4 billion annually. The cartels, using well-established Chinese Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) to launder billions in global drug proceeds into the Mexican economy, would face significant challenges if these funds were to stop suddenly. Furthermore, the cartels are the fifth-largest employer in Mexico, with an estimated 175,000 members. Without the cartels, these people would likely find themselves unemployed, which could have serious political repercussions.
The complexity of direct military operations
More direct complications arise when considering how the cartels have designed their organizational and operational resilience. Every cartel has established numerous decentralized manufacturing, storage, and distribution locations across Mexico. It’s not about bombing one or two positions. There are thousands of sites across Mexico, which means that the loss of a few will have no significant impact on the clandestine drug production and distribution in the US.
More importantly, the ease with which manufacturers can produce synthetic drugs like fentanyl allows these labs to be located in city apartments. The cartel’s strategy for doing so is very similar to Hamas’s strategy of embedding their assets in civilian areas of Gaza to try and minimize the likelihood of a preemptive strike against them and to ‘camouflage’ their operations in highly populated areas.
Additionally, the US will not be attacking civilians but well-trained cartel militias comprising ex-military personnel that are well-armed with access to advanced weaponry, including armored vehicles, missiles, and drones. The cartels also invest in continual training of their militias, making them experts in asymmetrical conflict and the use of advanced counter-law enforcement technology.
Ironically, the Los Zetas gang was initially formed by ex-Mexican special forces operatives who were trained in the United States by the US Military. They are, therefore, well-versed in US special forces tactics and strategy. Cartels are further enhancing their combat abilities by employing Colombian military veterans as mercenaries.
The intelligence operations within the cartels are extensive. Their intelligence encompasses all of Mexico, including its public and private communications channels, as well as its border processes and procedures, and the personnel involved. This information enables them to effectively manage smuggling operations and transport their cargo across the border with relative ease.
The impact on America of cross-border strikes
Cross-border military strikes will undoubtedly impact Americans, especially those living in Mexico. The Mexican government and the cartels will strike back in various ways, targeting American people and interests. Trade between the two countries totaled $839.9 billion in 2024, and war could pose significant economic challenges for both countries, particularly for American companies with manufacturing facilities in Mexico.
The Mexican government might close the US Embassy in Mexico City as well as the nine US Consulate General offices or reduce the number of staff working in the country. As a result, there could be increased tension between the two countries and a greater opportunity for cartels to exert influence within the Mexican government. Any consular staff or law enforcement officers remaining in the country may also become targets for kidnapping and murder, and we have already seen this occur with the 1985 kidnapping, torture, and murder of as DEA Special Agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena by Rafael Caro Quintero, the former leader of the now-defunct Guadalajara Cartel.
Importantly, the State Department estimates that about 1.6 million Americans are living and working in Mexico. Following any type of cross border American activity, these citizens will become easy pickings for the ruthless Cartels who could do any number of things to them ranging from kidnapping them for ransom to subjecting them to extreme violence.
Anti-American sentiment will overflow from the cartels to the Mexican population, as happened in 1993 in Mogadishu, Somalia, when the citizens the US Military was trying to help in a devastating famine joined militias in attacking and killing 18 American soldiers and two Delta Force Snipers. The remaining 14 killed in action were from various units, including the 75th Ranger Regiment and other special operators. A total of 84 Americans were wounded in the engagement. The sight of an American pilot being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu shocked the country, resulting in the US withdrawing from the country due to the massive uproar.
If cartels capture, torture, and brutalize American soldiers or civilians and share graphic visuals on social platforms, there will be an immense public outcry. The sight of bloodied, wounded, or even dead Americans will provoke intense political and social pressure to put an end to any military action.
Domestic law enforcement and the government targeted
As seen in many South American countries, if the cartels come under pressure, they will react with extreme violence. The cartels already have thousands of sicarios embedded in their US operations due to the lax immigration policies of our previous administration. The cartels will task these foot soldiers with attacking American law enforcement and government employees, as well as their locations, such as police stations, government buildings, or even in their homes. We have already seen police officers attacked by South American gang members, and this will intensify with a new goal to kill as many as possible.
Moreover, domestic American fringe groups will likely join the fight and also launch deadly attacks against what they perceive as their enemies, supporting the cartels, intentionally or not. Some American militias may also decide to join the fray, supposedly to help law enforcement and protect the homeland. Both sides may be driven by idealism, but the consequences will result in death and destruction in the homeland, along with an increase in anarchy and chaos that could even lead to military operations within America to restore order.
Even if America’s efforts slow or stop the supply of narcotics through the southern border, this will not impact the domestic demand, creating an opportunity for local manufacturing operations. As mentioned, the ease of producing synthetic narcotics makes it easy to set up a lab in the suburbs, supplying users via social media or chat apps, or directly supplying the cartels’ domestic associates.
What can America do to effectively mitigate the threat?
Engaging in direct military confrontation may pose significant risks to our homeland security; however, America can develop comprehensive, multi-step strategies that mitigate the risks to homeland security. One option is to target the infrastructure that underpins the operations of drug cartels. By concentrating efforts on critical cartel capabilities, the US can effectively disrupt cartel activities and degrade their cross-border smuggling operations.
A starting point is to harden border controls. This means more than stopping immigrants from crossing the border illegally. It also involves strengthening the current processes governing the legitimate entry and exit of commercial trade and vehicles. Increased investment in technology, such as advanced X-ray equipment, handheld chemical analysis devices, and specialized narcotic K-9s and handlers, will enable border-control personnel to enhance their search operations for every vehicle entering the country without creating excessive delays at the border.
When it comes to the importation of goods into America, Mexican manufacturers could be assigned an ‘express lane’ at the border if their manufacturing facilities adhere to American standards. Security would start at the top of the supply chain, with cargo inspected during manufacture and at the time of loading into secure cargo containers equipped with smart locks. Opening these locks before the truck reaches its destination will trigger an alarm. Additionally, with GPS tracking, if a vehicle stops somewhere for any length of time or if the lock is tampered with, it will be flagged and stopped at the border for a thorough search, which may involve emptying each vehicle and its containers.
The most important logistical asset for the cartels and their most vulnerable is their use of thousands of personal vehicles to transport more than 95% of all narcotics into the US. The only way to mitigate that threat is to establish vehicle entry allocations to the exact number that can be scanned and inspected. This will directly impact the ability of the cartels to smuggle multi-ton quantities of narcotics, including billions of fentanyl pills, into the homeland. This mitigation effort would not rely on the reduction of essential precursors from China, narcotics production in clandestine labs across Mexico, or the laundering of billions of dollars.
If the cartels cannot transport their product into the US in bulk, then it will stockpile in Mexico. Additionally, the US will take extra security steps to prevent the cartels from using maritime smuggling along the US coastline, including using low-flying aircraft and significantly cracking down on “narco-backpack smuggling” across the open border areas. This would result in a significant reduction in all narcotics smuggled into the US, immediately impacting billions in cartel funds, reducing nationwide drug distribution, and totally disrupting the entire narcotics supply chain. The sudden shortage in narcotics for sale would cause the price to skyrocket. The downside of this strategy is that it would directly affect the US/Mexico trade balance.
It’s time for Americans to make a choice: either demand that the Trump administration initiate a cross-border trafficking mitigation plan that will effectively eliminate 95% of the narcotics flooding into the country and weather the subsequent short-term financial storm, or accept that the cartels are unbeatable and illicit fentanyl will continue to kill 80 to 100,000 Americans every year. There is no “middle of the road” strategy that will effectively mitigate cross-border vehicle/commercial traffic in drug smuggling, reduce the overall fentanyl overdose fatalities, and not cost America anything in international trade.
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Originally published PERSPECTIVE: Five Considerations for Military Action Against Mexican Drug Cartels on by https://www.hstoday.us/featured/perspective-5-ways-military-action-against-mexican-cartels-could-endanger-the-u-s-homeland/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=perspective-5-ways-military-action-against-mexican-cartels-could-endanger-the-u-s-homeland at Homeland Security
Originally published Homeland Security
