Estonia moves to counter threats from Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’

Estonia’s government is actively tracking the “shadow fleet” of vessels operated covertly by Russia that has been causing problems in the Baltic Sea over the last year and posing serious environmental risks for the region, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said Monday.

Pevkur hosted a small group of journalists at the Embassy of Estonia in Washington while he was in town for a two-day visit with his American counterparts and lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Topics discussed included a massive ongoing military drill with participation from 16,000 Estonian and allied forces, and the latest on Russia’s hybrid warfare activities in Europe against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, among others.

“Can you say that we have prevented attacks [from Russia] in Europe? Well, I’m not going to be very specific, but I can say that, yes, the European services together have prevented different types of hybrid attacks. But unfortunately, we’re not going into more details,” Pevkur told DefenseScoop.

Estonia shares an 183-mile border — and a complex history — with Russia. Since regaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the Baltic nation has been intentional about applying digital technology to build a transparent and efficient government.

On the heels of invading Ukraine and initiating the full-scale war in early 2022, Russia started conducting so-called “hybrid” warfare activities involving drones, cyber intrusions and other assets against Estonia and nearby NATO members.

Pevkur said that “luckily,” Estonia has not experienced “direct hybrid attacks in recent weeks or months.” However, he noted that nations also lack a clear definition for every type of assault that could constitute hybrid warfare, which introduces challenges when identifying the threats.   

“We see [hybrid attacks as] basically everything below the Article Five threshold [that would trigger a collective self-defense response from NATO]. So when we take the attack on [Leonid Volkov, a close associate of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, in Lithuania], or assassination attempts, or the attack on [Estonia’s Interior Minister, Lauri Läänemets’] car, or attacks on journalists — we put them altogether — and the main indicator is that all these attacks, whatever they are, were they orchestrated by the Russian services or not? And now the question is, can we also prove that?” Pevkur explained.

“So this is why we cannot point the finger at the moment to the attacks associated with the [sabotage of Baltic Sea submarine infrastructure]. We cannot say clearly that they are hybrid attacks,” he told DefenseScoop.

As the defense minister suggested, in recent months, a large fleet of so-called ghost or shadow vessels allegedly commanded by Russia are being deployed — often without flags — around the Baltic Sea to circumvent Western sanctions and illegally export oil, among other operations. One such tanker detained by authorities late last year was suspected of disrupting a subsea power cable that connects Finland and Estonia.

“There are close to around 500 ships in the world which we can identify as a shadow fleet crew or shadow fleet vessels,” Pevkur said. “We know all of them.”

He pointed to the Kiwala —  a vessel originally sailing under the flag of Djibouti, with a Chinese captain and on the sanctions list in multiple countries — that the Estonian navy intercepted in April. The military held it up for inspections until dozens of “deficiencies” were resolved.

“They are one-layer tankers. They pose a huge environmental risk. And the Baltic Sea and Finnish Gulf are very shallow, so when something happens, the ocean can maybe handle this somewhere in the Atlantic — but the Baltic Sea cannot. And the environmental impact will be huge,” Pevkur said.

“So this is why, yes, we are monitoring every ship, every vessel which enters into the Baltic Sea, and we check all of them. The monitoring system is in place. We share the information with our allies, and if necessary, we will act — as we did with the Kiwala,” he told DefenseScoop.

Estonia’s leadership recently pledged to invest more than 5% of the nation’s GDP for defense spending annually, and alongside America has been encouraging NATO allies to do the same.

“Over half of that money will go directly into the capabilities — so new vessels, the renovation of the old vessels, air defense systems” or other platforms, Pevkur said.

He noted that his team wanted to schedule a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth while in Washington, but that wasn’t doable because the Pentagon chief is currently traveling with President Donald Trump in the Middle East.

“Hopefully we will meet on the third of June in Brussels” during EU Week, Pevkur said. “For me, of course, it’s important to be in contact with Pete.”