From the battlefields of Ukraine to the contested waters of the Red Sea and the skies over the Middle East, a profound shift is underway in modern warfare. The era of air power being solely the domain of expensive, crewed aircraft is rapidly giving way to the age of massed, low-cost, and increasingly autonomous aerial systems. One-way attack Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (OWA-UAVs), often dubbed “kamikaze drones,” and sophisticated loitering munitions are proliferating at an unprecedented rate, fundamentally altering tactical realities and strategic calculations for nations big and small.
This transformation isn’t merely about new hardware; it’s driven by disruptive factors. Perhaps the most significant is the “democratization” of air power. Systems like Iran’s Shahed series, estimated to cost around $20,000 per unit, or the even cheaper First-Person View (FPV) drones adapted from commercial components (costing as little as $500), dramatically lower the barrier to entry for projecting force. State actors like Russia leverage thousands of Shaheds against Ukrainian infrastructures, while non-state groups like the Houthis use similar Iranian-supplied systems to disrupt global shipping in the Red Sea. This accessibility empowers a wider range of actors, complicating global security.
Closely linked is the brutal economic logic of attrition these systems impose. Defenders face unsustainable cost-exchange ratios, often forced to expend multi-million-dollar interceptor missiles to counter threats costing a tiny fraction of that amount. Russia’s Shahed campaign, despite high interception rates (often 80-90%), remains cost-effective for Moscow because the sheer volume saturates defenses, and the cost per target struck is far lower than conventional missiles. Similarly, tactical systems like FPV drones or Russia’s Lancet loitering munition (around $35,000) can destroy or disable tanks, artillery, and air defense systems worth millions, fundamentally shifting the economics of battlefield losses.
The psychological dimension is also potent. The constant threat from above, amplified by the ubiquitous sharing of drone strike footage online, exerts significant pressure on troop morale and shapes public perception of the conflict. Soldiers face the unnerving reality that a cheap, remotely piloted weapon could target them individually at any moment.
Fueling this revolution is a technological engine built on three key pillars: Additive Manufacturing (AM), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Modular Open Systems Architecture (MOSA).
AM, or 3D printing, enables the rapid prototyping and production of complex, lightweight drone components. Companies like Firestorm Labs are pioneering expeditionary manufacturing, using containerized 3D printing cells to produce and repair drones directly near the front lines, drastically shortening logistics chains. Others, like Cummings Aerospace, leverage AM to iterate designs rapidly and cost-effectively to produce high-speed loitering munitions.
AI is transforming drones from remotely piloted tools into increasingly autonomous systems. AI algorithms enhance navigation (especially in GPS-denied environments), enable automated target recognition (ATR) that speeds up the kill chain, allow for autonomous decision-making during terminal attack phases, and increase resilience against electronic warfare. Critically, AI is the key enabler for drone swarms – large numbers of drones coordinating autonomously to overwhelm defenses or perform complex tasks.
MOSA provides the architectural flexibility needed for this rapid evolution. By using standardized interfaces, manufacturers can easily swap components – sensors, warheads, communication systems, AI processors – allowing for rapid upgrades, mission customization, and easier integration across different platforms and forces.
This technological convergence is spawning a new generation of weapon systems. In the United States, startups like Anduril are developing families of autonomous systems, including the air-launched Altius drone and the modular Barracuda cruise missile, designed for “hyperscale production,” leveraging their Lattice AI software. Firestorm focuses on mission-adaptable UAS like Tempest, built via their expeditionary, scalable 3D printing xCells. Cummings Aerospace offers the high-speed, 3D-printed Hellhound loitering munition. Established players like AeroVironment continue to supply systems like the Switchblade loitering munition used extensively by Ukraine.
Europe is also rapidly innovating.
The Franco-German KNDS is developing loitering munitions like the jet-powered LARINAE and the MATARIS family, leveraging its munitions expertise. German AI defense company Helsing is mass-producing its AI-driven HX-2 strike drone, heavily supplied to Ukraine, from dedicated “Resilience Factories.” Competitor Stark Defence, also German, offers the Virtus VTOL loitering munition, incorporating AI and lessons from Ukraine.
Since 2022, Ukraine has implemented rapid scaling of drone production for 2.5–5 million units annually, a trend that demonstrates the effectiveness of distributed manufacturing in modern warfare. This model contrasts with centralized approaches like Anduril’s hyperscale facilities or Helsing’s sovereign factories but shares key resilience principles. Over 150 manufacturers, ranging from state-owned enterprises to volunteer-led workshops, operate across Ukraine.
This “chaotic arsenal” of producers reduces vulnerability to Russian strikes and enables rapid iteration. Monthly production surged from 20,000 drones in early 2024 to 200,000 by January 2025, with plans to exceed 2.5 million drones in 2025 (including 5 million FPV drones annually if funded). Competition among manufacturers drives advancements like fiber-optic control systems (immune to jamming), AI-guided drones, and hybrid missile-drone systems like the Palianytsia with 3,000 km range.
Israel, a long-standing pioneer, continues to advance its capabilities. Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) produces the combat-proven Harop loitering munition known for its long endurance and range. Rafael Advanced Defense Systems offers the tactical Spike FireFly loitering munition and is partnering with General Atomics to produce the Bullseye cruise missile (derived from its Ice Breaker) for the US market, emphasizing affordability and scale. The Viper 300 and 750, produced by Spear UAVs, are also designed for rapid manufacturing and operations in swarms in scale to achieve battlefield dominance rapidly. Xtend Defense is offering its line of Scorpio 500 and 1000 multirotor drones, leveraging FPV operation via wireless and fiber optics, leveraging its XOS, an open drone operating system to control drones in a ‘human-assisted’ autonomous mission. Israel is also heavily investing in counter-drone capabilities, including directed energy weapons like Iron Beam.
The rise of cheap, smart, and numerous aerial weapons signifies an irreversible shift. It demands urgent adaptation from Western militaries, requiring faster acquisition cycles, transformed industrial bases capable of affordable mass production, and doctrinal evolution. Countering these threats necessitates layered, cost-effective defenses, moving beyond expensive interceptors towards solutions like directed energy, advanced electronic warfare, and interceptor drones. Simultaneously, managing the proliferation of these technologies to state and non-state actors requires robust international controls and vigilance. The future battlefield is increasingly defined not just by the sophistication of individual platforms, but by the ability to deploy intelligent systems at scale – a reality reshaping conflict before our eyes.
Originally published The New Air War: How Rapid and Cheap Manufacturing of Drones and Missiles Are Remaking Conflict on by https://defense-update.com/20250502_the-drone-war.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-drone-war at Defense Update
Originally published Defense Update
